The more things change the more things stay the same.

This old adage seems to hold true with regard to recent elections in Southwest County, but maybe not for long.

After the recent Democrat landslide in the Presidential election, Southwest County remains solidly Republican.

Our little piece of paradise seems to have resisted (or weathered, depending on your political bent) the storm of "change" and clung to its guns, religion and incumbents.

Despite high hopes among local Democrats, Republicans generally won the day.

Southwest Riverside County has traditionally been a bastion of Republicanism, on par with Orange County and Northern San Diego County. It remains so, at least for now.

In the weeks before the recent elections, Democrats in the county, fueled by Obama-mania and a reeling Republican national effort, boldly predicted that change would come to the area in the form of election upsets.

This did not quite happen; still, gains were made.

One of the races that received a little extra (read: unusual) attention from Democrats was the 66th Assembly District.

Grey Frandsen, a rising star among Democrats, challenged Republican incumbent Kevin Jeffries for the chance to represent Southwest County in the State Assembly.

Despite running a strong campaign, Frandsen was ultimately defeated by Jeffries.

Receiving only a modicum of support from the Democrat machine, on the strength of an energetic campaign Frandsen was able to Advertisement

[ Chatton and Associates ] make inroads among area voters.

Yet Republicans still hold claim over Southwest County.

But viewed over the past decade or so, it is apparent that Democrats are, in fact, making significant gains in the Southwest County.

Take a look at the progress made by Democrats in the 66th Assembly district since 2002.

2002

Ray Haynes (Rep.) 65.71%

David G. Brostrom (Dem.) 34.29%

2004

Ray Haynes (Rep.) 59.66%

Laurel Nicholson (Dem.) 37.93%

2006

Kevin Jeffries (Rep.) 59.3%

Lauren Nicholson (Dem.) 40.67%

2008

Kevin Jeffries (Rep.) 55.64%

Grey Frandsen (Dem.) 44.36%

Frandsen finished a full 10 percentage points higher than the 2002 candidate, David Brostrom.

Part of this can be attributed to the candidate; Frandsen personally worked very hard. But perhaps it is also a signal that our area is changing ideologically.

In Southwest County, Republicans continue to have a better organization and are not about to let up.

But Democrats are getting their act together and making incremental but noticeable progress in closing the gap.

If the trend of the last decade continues at its current pace, it will be another decade before Democrats have a chance at wresting control of the 66th District.

But there will come a point in the not-so-distant future when the Democratic Party will begin looking at Southwest County as a battleground that is winnable.

Dave Reynolds is a political consultant/writer currently residing in Menifee. During the 1990s he served as chief of staff to the State Assembly Representative from the 66th District.